Political betting eastleigh by election

Second, that the Lib Dems are proving to be electorally successful in rural areas as evidenced by their sensational by-election victory in North Shropshire last year. Whilst the South West of England was indeed a strong area for the Liberal Democrats between and , since nailing their flag to the mast over Brexit the basis of Liberal Democrat support has migrated to affluent well-educated areas in the Home Counties.

In Cornwall, where the Liberal Democrats won all six Parliamentary seats in , the party now holds just 13 of 87 seats on the unitary authority and only came second in two of the parliamentary seats in The potential for Conservative defeat is aided by the tacit electoral alliance of Labour and the Liberal Democrats acting as a pincer movement on the governing party with the former focusing on Wakefield and the latter on the Devon seat.

Issues over payments to farmers and ambulance waiting times provide fruitful issues for the Liberal Democrats to campaign on. Indeed, the Conservatives have historical form in learning from by-election defeats. Following the Eastleigh by-election that the Liberal Democrats held despite their travails in the national opinion polls, the Liberal Democrats reassured themselves that they could retain their Parliamentary seats by focusing on their local record of action.

However, the Conservatives went away and came up with a better message and strategy, allowing them to nearly wipe out the Liberal Democrats altogether at the election. To win in Tiverton and Honiton the Liberal Democrats would require a But the party thinks it has increased its share of the vote from the 9.

He has not conceded yet or, if he has, I did not hear it , but he is in full "brave face on defeat" mode: the Lib Dems were always going to do well here because they hold so many council seats, governing parties only very rarely win seats in byelections the last time was in , when the Tories took a seat from a Labour MP who defected to the SDP and was rash enough to seek re-election , and "One Nation" Labour should be doing better etc.

The verification process which involves counting the number of valid ballot papers is over, the counters have had a break and the full counting process is about to start. It was There are 80, people on the electoral role, according to the council. That means 42, people voted. He still won't claim victory - he says that the Lib Dems, the Tories and Ukip are all close, and that he's seen elections like this that are expected to go one way turn suddenly at the end - but it's obvious that he does think he's won.

It's the most important byelection of my lifetime because, in every other one, if we had not won, there would have been another opportunity along the way. He's just told my colleague Steven Morris that the Lib Dems have won. Appear to be taking of all three established parties in eastleigh.

BUT Tories hardest hit almost certainly. The single most important conclusion from tonight: David Cameron has never won a general election. If he can't win Eastleigh he never will. In the past, when the Lib Dems won a byelection which normally involved taking a seat off another party , there was a sense of exhilaration.

Tonight they're happy, but the dominant mood is more one of relief. We should be getting the final result very soon. The Lib Dems are now saying their majority is around 1, Here are the key ones. There was very little in it at all about national politics. Mostly it was a tribute to the work of the local council, although Thornton said the result did show those who have written off the Liberal Democrats that they are wrong.

In the future, Ukip will never be excluded from political debate, she said. She said that it had been a clean fight, and she paid tribute to the people of Eastleigh. He said that in future Labour would remain a presence in Eastleigh, and he started talking about the importance of politics. But at the back of the room people were already leaving. Everyone wants to get to bed.

This is an important byelection victory for them, but it does not feel like a dramatic one. As I said earlier, the mood is more relief than anything else. At the end of the day they have only held a seat that has been Lib Dem since Their share of the vote is well down, from Admittedly, a defeat would have been a disaster. But avoiding disaster does not automatically constitute a triumph. For the Tories, this probably is a disaster. Governing parties do lose support mid-term, but David Cameron cannot deploy that excuse because he doesn't govern with a Conservative majority.

His hopes of winning the next general election outright depend on winning in seats like this. Over the next days and weeks he's going to find it hard persuading his party that this is now a realistic prospect. Labour got 9. Doing marginally better than in is not something to boast about, but, as the byelection inquests get going, Ed Miliband can at least take comfort from the fact that his authority has not been damaged as much as Cameron's.

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