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The AFL Premiership odds fluctuate week by week, depending on not only whether certain teams win or lose, but also how they play, key injuries and suspensions. The two most prestigious individual awards, the Brownlow and Coleman medals, are also popular futures markets in the AFL.
In each AFL game, the three best players are awarded 3, 2 and 1 points respectively by the umpires, with these votes revealed on Brownlow night in the lead up to the Grand Final. Like the Premiership market, these AFL odds fluctuate regularly, depending on weekly performances. Punters need to beware the fact that once suspended, a player becomes ineligible to win the Brownlow that year. Finally, the Coleman Medal is awarded to the top goal kicker at the end of the regular season.
Download Stats Insider's comprehensive Brownlow Medal report here. Sign Up To Download Loading When modelling the Brownlow Medal, Stats Insider's data analysts gather hundreds of data points from every AFL game between and This data is used to train a machine learning regression model on past votes to determine which variables were those most likely to catch the eye of the umpires, and thus correlate to Brownlow Medal votes for that game.
Stats Insider users can access Brownlow predictions for this season along with a detailed report that is available as a free download. The report features our model's main contenders, team votes, probabilities of leading after rounds 5 and 10, as well as round-by-round data for each and every AFL match of season Having correctly predicted the last three winners of the Brownlow, including the top four in the exact order, Stats Insider's Brownlow report is the best in the business.
Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. New customers only. And as is often the case, the medal can be decided in the last round of the season, so punters will be hoping their early selection has a good game to finish off the season. Or maybe now is the time to have a little flutter before the odds set during the AFL finals?
He will have his work cut out, however, going into battle against Melbourne midfielders Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca. It is simply a by-product of team success. As a point of reference: from all the way through to , only twice has a player won the Brownlow and won the premiership in the same year. In the period between and , there have been very few non-midfielders take home the Brownlow.
Lance Franklin entered the Brownlow count as one of the big favourites in after being the first player in almost 20 years to kick goals in the home and away season, but this was only enough to elevate the former Hawk to sixth on the board. Brownlow betting is a stats game It is a long-held view that modern football is too stats heavy and that numbers do not tell the entire story, but this is not exactly the case in Brownlow Medal betting.
Robert Harvey won consecutive Brownlow Medals in and While great emphasis is placed upon players that have a profound impact on the game, sheer weight of numbers usually plays well with the umpires as those with the ball in hand most often are in constant view of the vote givers. In the period between and , only once has the Brownlow Medal winner averaged outside the top 10 in the league for total disposals, while players who finish top two on that list have taken home the award on four separate occasions.
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