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According to Gann, prices then should be expected to fall to the next trend line i. In other words, as one angle is penetrated, expect prices to move and consolidate at the next angle. Gann developed several techniques for studying mar- ket action. These include Gann angles, Gann fans, Gann grids, and cardinal squares. A Gann fan displays lines at each of the angles that Gann iden- tified. This is an 80 80 grid on which each line is 1 1, and the lines are spaced 80 weeks apart.

Gann based his market trading and forecasting methods on time, as well as on price, and said repeatedly that time is most important when it comes to analyzing and forecasting market movements. Being able to forecast both time and price is the ultimate goal of technical analysis, and many believe that it is impossible to do; the legend of Gann, however, stands as the main opposition to this belief.

Time is the most important factor. They can be extended extrap- olated to , , and percent. Gann believed that human nature is constant and that this shows up in repetitive price patterns that are identifiable and which therefore can be acted on to increase profit potential.

Here is the procedure: 1. Determine the time units. One common way to determine a time unit is to study the chart and look at the distances over which price movements occur. Then put the angles to the test and see how accurate they are. The intermediate-term time frame one to three months tends to produce the optimal number of pat- terns compared with short-term daily or multiyear charts. Determine the high or low from which to draw the Gann lines. The most common way to accomplish this is to complement it with other forms of technical analysis, that is, Fibonacci levels or pivot points.

Decide which pattern to use. The three most common patterns are the 1 1, the 1 2, and the 2 1. These are simply variations of the slope of the line. For example, the 1 2 is half the slope of the 1 1. The numbers simply indicate the number of units. Look for patterns. The direction would be either downward and to the right from a high point or upward and to the right from a low point. Look for repeat patterns on the chart.

The basis of this technique is the premise that markets are cyclical. The most common use for Gann angles when predicting the market is to indicate support and resistance levels. Quite simply, predicting the market using Gann, angles adds a new dimension to support and resistance levels in that they can be diagonal. The optimal balance between time and price exists when prices move identically with time. This occurs when the Gann angle is at 45 degrees.

In total, there are nine different Gann angles. When one of these trend lines is broken, the following angle will provide the next level of support or resistance. He first considered wholesale prices and then looked at interest rates, wages, and foreign trade. Finally, he analyzed data on the production and consumption of coal, pig iron, and lead. He adjusted production figures to allow for population change and used a nine-year moving average to remove statistical noise. Kondratiev thought that the presence of a long wave was probable but could not be specific as to its cause, deeming it to be inherent in a capitalist economy.

He postulated that it could arise because of the wearing out of capital goods, but he admitted that lack of reliable data cur- tailed conclusive verification. Numerous critics have attacked his methodology. What was dangerously unacceptable to his Communist masters was the idea that there was an inherent self-correcting mechanism perpetuating capitalism. He was banished to the Gulag, where he was quickly condemned to solitary confinement.

He became mentally ill and died. Again, it was posthumous publication that drew attention to his work. Click here for terms of use. Kondratiev was exiled to Siberia by Bolshevik officials who flatly rejected his conclusions. To the faithful, there could be only one falling phase of the capitalist economy, followed by the socialist rev- olution and the dictatorship of the proletariat.

And following that, there was to be only one rising phase, leading to eternal bliss under Communism. Kondratiev died in the Gulag in at the age of His work was later updated by other economists using his original methodology. Beveridge — studied wheat prices back to the s and is reputed to have deduced them back to He discovered many cycles, publishing his findings in and three years earlier than Kondratiev.

One of these cycles occurred every 50 to 60 years, with an average periodicity of 54 years. The long-wave rhythm, which varies from 45 to 60 years, has attained its periodicity from averaging a wide distribution. It is widely known as the Kondratiev wave or, less elegantly, as the K-wave.

Economists generally recognize four major cycles, or regular fluctuations, in the economy as follows: 1. Kondratiev Wave 77 J. Schumpeter, who served as president of the American Economic Society in the s, was an outstanding student of economic cycles. He believed that the various cycles are interde- pendent, in contrast with the views of others such as Forrester, who believed that the cycles act independently of one another. Schumpeter baptized three of the four cycles by naming them after their discoverers.

In the stock market, this is attributed to a retracement phenomenon that allows supply and demand levels to adjust to the recent price changes and is also called accumulation and distribution. That is, whichever trend was in motion prior to the appearance of a triangle will be the same trend after the conclusion of the triangle. See Table The descending triangle pattern and its nine most frequent three-column sequels are shown in Figure The symmetrical triangle pattern and its nine most frequent three-column sequels are shown in Figure We will use a reversal amount of three boxes and a seven-column pattern.

We will limit the maximum number of figures Xs or Os in each column to nine that is, quantities greater than nine are rounded down to nine. The minimum number of figures in each column is set at three because of the reversal algorithm mechanism. Thus there are seven possibilities for the number of Xs or Os in each column. Each pattern consists of seven columns. This generates , possible patterns. In our initial computer tests, we discovered that the lateral congestion patterns like , , , and dominated the top of the frequency count.

Therefore, we found it necessary to impose a few conditions to filter these lateral patterns. First, we mandated that the center column have the greatest number of figures among all the columns. This eliminates the redundancy of shifting the pattern one column in either direction. Second, the fourth column must have a minimum of six Xs or Os. These two conditions reduced the number of possible patterns nearly by half to , The three most frequent patterns are shown in Figure The three most common patterns are shown in Figure For example, the two patterns shown in Figure USAGE The tables and pattern diagrams in this chapter were compiled more or less as general information.

They can, however, be used to estimate the number of Xs or Os in the subsequent columns. For example, assume we are using a three-pip box size and a three-box reversal amount and we have a five-column pattern that consists of as in Figure For example, in Figure Specifically, we map the frequencies of occurrence of every four-column pattern preceding the vertical column that contains nine or more boxes of either Xs or Os.

Inverse patterns are summed together. For example a sequence of, three Xs, four Os, five Xs, and six Os is represented the same way as three Os, four Xs, five Os, and six Xs except that the succeeding breakout occurs is the opposite direction. See Figures In the following analysis, we catalog the four-column patterns that immediately follow a nine or more box breakout. In all cases we use a three-box reversal amount for box sizes of one, two, and three pips.

The column headers refer to the highest X in the first column of the predecessor charts and its horizontal relationship with the highest X in the third column of the predecessor charts. The average four-column predecessor pattern was while the average successor pattern was We intend to continue our analysis of breakouts by using different currency pairs and different time frames.

We have only touched the tip of the iceberg in the current introductory study. However, none of these specifies the magnitude of the anticipated price move. Martin J. It seems to be based on the idea that lateral and vertical movements are proportional to each other on a point and figure chart. Also, the price objective may not be fulfilled in the same column as the signal column.

Two, four, and even six columns may occur before an estimated objective is hit. The stock market has fixed opening and closing times and traders can update their charts anytime outside market hours at their leisure. Many traders perform this task in the morning with the arrival of the early edition of the newspaper. Attention to detail and staying focused are the basic mental requisites.

The choice of supplies is very subjective and is determined by whatever you are comfortable with. Nearly all platforms allow traders to adjust the time interval Plotting Point and Figure Charts in Real Time within the charting window, typically 5 seconds, 10 seconds, 30 seconds, 1 minute, 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 30 minutes, and so on. Many traders prefer to use the standard three-box reversal amount as a constant and then vary the box size based on the anticipated magnitude of the price objective.

It is a good idea to save the sheets and review them after a week or so to ascertain how significantly your online graphing skills have improved. Next, check the most recent price displayed in the platform chart window and make this price the median price on the left side of the graph paper. Then fill in the price increments above and below the median price, remembering to add or subtract the box size for each number in the vertical price scale.

At A. At the same time we placed a stop-loss limit order at 1. After a brief period of unavoidable lateral movement, the trend again continued downward. When the price hit 1. We repeated the same method when the price hit 1. At this point we have locked in a pip profit. Another period of lateral movement then developed and no new lows were hit.

A trend reversal appeared imminent and we manually exited the market at 1. We highly recommend the use of trailing stops to limit losses and protect gains. The selection of the initial stop-loss as the highest X in the two previous X columns was based on this particular pattern and is not a universal rule. Plus our trading objective was essentially a scalping tactic. A simple caveat here is to not get absorbed in charting for the sake of charting itself. Never neglect the real issue that is occurring on the screen.

If violent surges break out, stop charting and adjust your stop-loss, and then take profit limit orders accordingly. Charts can always be updated after the trade is liquidated. Do not! File all the sheets regardless of the outcome win, lose, or draw.

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